Declan Rice, dissected (2024)

Even as Declan Rice lifted the Europa Conference League trophy in Prague on June 7, West Ham United supporters knew they were unlikely to see him play in the club’s shirt again.

With strong interest in the England midfielder from leading Premier League clubs and Bayern Munich, it seemed a matter of when, not if, he would be leaving the London Stadium this summer.

Arsenal are now set to secure the 24-year-old’s signature after agreeing a £105million fee with West Ham. This comes after treble winners Manchester City had weighed in with a bid of their own, before withdrawing from the running.

So, what will Arsenal be getting for their money? Where does Rice excel and, importantly, how can he improve?

The Athletic has already charted his journey to becoming one of the Premier League’s most consistent performers, but now let’s profile Declan Rice, the player…

Elsewhere onThe Athletic…

• Transfer blog — live updates
• Rice transfer can leave everyone a winner – even West Ham
• How can Arsenal afford Rice, Havertz and Timber under FFP?

Before analysing Rice’s actions on the pitch, it is worth noting just how much football he has played in recent seasons.

After his first-team breakthrough with West Ham in 2017-18, where he made 15 Premier League starts, Rice has played at least 80 per cent of the possible top-flight minutes in each of the past five seasons — including every minute of the Covid-19-disrupted season in 2019-20.

Playing at least 3,000 league minutes in four of those seasons (he fell just over one match short in the other) shows just how durable Rice is and is made all the more impressive considering his midfield position. Looking across all outfield players since 2018-19, only James Tarkowski (16,274) has more Premier League minutes than Rice’s 15,753.

It might be a cliche, but “the best ability is availability” rings true for Rice.

OK. On to his playing profile.

While it might appear counterintuitive to kick off with a player’s attributes when out of possession, this is one of Rice’s key strengths from his midfield role.

Given David Moyes’ West Ham side tend not to be front-foot aggressors without the ball, it is not surprising to see that Rice does not leap into challenges at the first sign of danger. Instead, he patrols the midfield, maintains good positional discipline, then engages in his defensive actions at the opportune moments.

This is reflected in the numbers, where Rice’s figure of 4.2 “true” tackles — denoting tackles plus challenges lost plus fouls committed — per 1,000 opponent touches places him just 62nd among a 69-strong group of defensive and central midfielders with 900-plus Premier League minutes played last season.

Crucially, on the occasions Rice does put a foot in, his technique ensures he will often be the one to come out on top. Nobody in that same pool of 69 players has a better “true” tackle win-rate than his 70 per cent.

An example of this is shown neatly below, with West Ham defending a counter-attack against Brentford in a three-v-three situation.

Rice could have leapt forward to engage as Bryan Mbeumo advances with the ball, but would have been likely to overcommit himself if he did.

Instead, he tracks Mbeumo’s run, slowing the attack down and forcing the Brentford forward inside to an area with more cover…

…before getting ahead of the play and sliding in to win the ball and come away with possession himself.

That may look like a simple action, but Rice’s intelligent reading of the game has been honed since his academy days, when he showed he was equally adept at playing centre-back.

When he is not engaging in the challenge, Rice will frequently step forward to cut out stray passes and recycle possession that way, highlighted by his rate of 2.3 “true” interceptions — denoting interceptions plus blocked passes — last season being the 10th highest among his 68 midfield peers.

That is not to say he isn’t capable of being more ‘front-foot’ in his actions. An aggressive, high press is often synonymous with the elite sides and if Rice does move to the Emirates Stadium, then he will likely be asked to engage in more advanced defensive actions.

Below, we see Rice push high out of possession against, funnily enough, Arsenal, with the visitors’ Thomas Partey targeted as a pressing trigger from which to regain the ball in the final third.

We’re only in the first minute of the match, but you can see Rice identify the trigger to press as Rob Holding plays a pass to Partey…

…before making up the ground to block a simple ball out to right-back Ben White.

Rice registered the most recoveries (11) and tackles-plus-interceptions (eight) of any player in that game — with the most significant of these coming in the build-up to West Ham’s penalty later in the first half.

Partey receives the ball from left-back Kieran Tierney and could play a simple pass wide to Gabriel Martinelli, but instead tries to flick it over Rice, who is charging in on him and makes the regain.

Arsenal are suddenly overloaded, three-vs-two. Rice finds Lucas Paqueta, who is fouled by centre-back Gabriel.

With his tall frame and abundant athleticism, the 6ft 1in (185cm) Rice certainly has the capacity to thrive in a high-pressing system, but is yet to showcase those attributes consistently for club or country due to the role he is asked to play in both teams. As West Ham typically sit in a mid-to-low block when out of possession, he is rarely asked to step out to press high up the field by Moyes and he acts as a single pivot for Gareth Southgate’s England.

But as you can see above, a different role can bring out a more aggressive, front-foot style that suits his skill set.

With his undeniable intelligence defensively now established, the next question is: how does Rice stack up in possession?

As the captain, he is quite simply the man tasked with making Moyes’ team tick, averaging 57.3 passes per 90 minutes in the Premier League last season — more than any West Ham player to see at least 900 minutes of game time.

With that, he is trusted to look after possession for his side, and he did so to great effect. His 14.5 per cent turnover rate — which denotes the share of possession lost from total touches taken — was the joint 10th-lowest among all defensive and central midfielders with 900-plus Premier League minutes played, showing how little he gave the ball away.

Is this a good thing? Ostensibly yes, but one criticism of Rice’s play is that he is a little too safe in his distribution. Looking at his pass sonar below — which visualises the direction and distance of a player’s passes — it is clear he is more likely to play the ball sideways than upfield.

However, it’s tricky to disassociate Rice’s individual style from the demands placed on him by his manager — with West Ham’s 90.4 passes per switch of play the fewest in the Premier League, highlighting how much they look to shift the ball from flank to flank.

It is an action Rice performs well, as we can see below.

He wins a 50-50 against Liverpool, regains possession, and swiftly pings the ball crossfield to Said Benrahma.

Digging a little deeper, only Matheus Nunes and Joao Palhinha attempted fewer passes per switch of play among central and defensive midfielders in the Premier League last season.

Interestingly, the team least likely to switch the play with the passes they make are Arsenal, the team he is set to join.

As part of a better attacking side than West Ham, Rice will no doubt be asked to get the ball to the feet of his team-mates quicker with slick passes punched between the lines, as opposed to crossfield diagonals.

However, Rice’s strength in switching play could be a useful weapon for Arsenal when playing against deeper-block teams who defend narrow to condense space. With Bukayo Saka and Martinelli particularly strong as attacking one-vs-one players on either flank, they will often have to be patient in circulating the ball from left to right in order to move the other team’s defensive structure and isolate their key forwards against their opposite numbers.

As he hasn’t shown enough consistent evidence of those punchy forward passes in a West Ham shirt, Rice’s main method of progressing the ball is by running with it. He talked during the 2021-22 season about his desire to have more freedom to support the attack and work the ball into more advanced areas.

“I am not just a holding midfielder any more. I was always labelled as one that just sits in front of the back four,” Rice said. “I really now want to see myself as a box-to-box player, where I can get up and down and create things as well as getting back and helping the team.”

Studying videos of Premier League midfield greats Yaya Toure and Patrick Vieira has certainly helped, with Rice’s tendency to drive forward with the ball backed up by the numbers. His 51 progressive carries — defined as a carry of minimum five metres that advances the ball 25 per cent or more closer to the opponent’s goal line — were fourth-most among central and defensive midfielders last season, behind Joe Willock (63), Martin Odegaard (57) and Rodri (55).

We have become accustomed to seeing those runs from Rice as he escapes the press, commits midfielders and forces them to scamper back towards their own goal as he glides forward with his long strides.

When digging into the average distance of all progressive carries made across that same group of midfielders mentioned earlier, Rice’s 20.8 metres per progressive carry comes out top of the pile, highlighting his desire to stretch his legs and gallop forward when given the opportunity.

Mapping Rice’s share of progressive actions through his carrying compared with his passing highlights how he is more likely to run with the ball — albeit less likely than some others in the Premier League.

While seven per cent of his total carries are progressive — placing him above average among his peers — just five per cent of his passes are, which underpins that reduced propensity to zip the ball to those team-mates ahead of him on the pitch.

Should this be something for Rice to work on? Perhaps, but that separation of his skill set from the requirements of the team style will be difficult to disentangle until he is asked to adapt to a new role by Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta.

This distinction is shown when comparing his roles for club and country.

With West Ham, he is able to play more box-to-box on the left side of a 4-2-3-1.

But he has a more conservative job within Southgate’s 4-3-3, anchoring a midfield that can often look like a 4-1-4-1.

If given the license to get forward more, Rice has shown signs of greater attacking prowess, with more touches in the attacking third than ever (12.4 per 90) and a career-high four Premier League goals last season — something he was quick to identify after scoring in the 3-1 home win over Leeds United in the penultimate league game.

“I think I made a lot of runs into the box today, probably the most I’ve done in a while,” he said. “So I’ve just got to keep adding that to my game.”

How much he showcases such attributes will depend on the role he is asked to play at his prospective new club. An anchoring No 6 or a marauding box-to-box No 8?

Rice has the skill set to be either.

(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Sam Richardson)